GitLab

Our brand-new Deepseek-based AI says "Chiefs vs Eagles? ... How Predictable"

Super Bowl forecasts from our brand-new Deepseek-based AI trained to be much better at forecasting

Share this post

Nobody can predict the future but at Lightning arrester Labs we are training AI to offer it its finest shot. With up to date news and a little but lively 14 Billion parameter model, our AI is boldly predicting the unforeseeable. Join us as we try to respond to humankind's hardest concerns.

Super Bowl Sunday is nearly upon us and, just as two years back, we have the Chiefs against the Eagles. The spread currently sits at Chiefs -1.5 with an over-under of 48.5. While the statistics are well studied, there remain lots of pushing concerns that are less easy to determine. Our company, Lightning arrester Labs, has actually been mining concerns from places like polymarket.com and training a large language design to be much better at forecasting the future (and have actually seen some appealing enhancements - term paper inbound). This week we turned its cold, calculating eye at the Super Bowl to see if it can provide us some insight into the finer points of what we can expect this Sunday.

For more updates from the AI world register for my newsletter!

Background

Our AI is a 14 billion parameter design which is really on the smaller sized side. (Some price quotes suggest ChatGPT has 1.8 TRILLION specifications and trained using 8000 H100 GPUs. We used 8.) Additionally, its knowledge cutoff is from lots of months earlier so we have actually built an "agentic pipeline" to do news retrieval, summarization, and ranking. With each question we provide the news and watch as the AI reasons its method through unidentified area to make its best forecast possible.

And Now ... The Important Questions

We presented the following concerns to our AI and gauged its reaction. While we have seen prediction enhancements from our training, utilize these estimates for prop wagering at your own hazard.

Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 5% opportunity

And so it seems this Sunday will not be a romantic one. Our AI believes Taylor and Travis' relationship is rock strong, bbarlock.com but a little too private for photorum.eclat-mauve.fr a post-Super Bowl proposal. Plus got ta consider if the Chiefs lose. That would be an uncomfortable proposal ...

First, I'll take a look at the crucial points from the short articles. Travis has actually remained in a relationship with Taylor given that 2023. He's a huge football star, and she's been supportive of his career, attending his video games. They appear to have a strong, public relationship, and Taylor has actually even welcomed her family and friends to the Super Bowl, revealing her commitment.

Some fans are excited, while others, particularly Swifties, are a bit uncertain, specifically offered remarks Travis made about Donald Trump going to the Super Bowl. That has triggered some Swifties to question how appropriate Travis is for Taylor. However, the couple appears to be keeping their relationship personal and not resolving the speculation straight.

I think the key points are the speculation and his incredibly elusive answers. While he's plainly in a relationship and the Super Bowl is a crucial occasion, the odds and his actions recommend it's more of a possibility instead of a certainty. I 'd estimate a low likelihood, possibly around 5%, thinking about all elements.

Will the Eagles do more than 5 "tush-pushes" throughout the very bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 79% chance

No Jason Kelce hasn't stopped the Eagles from utilizing their signature "tush-push" relocation, now its simply a various front-tush being pressed. Will an AI understand what a "tush-push" is? Does an AI even understand what a "tush" is? Will it consider that the Chiefs stopped (controversy aside) Josh Allen's comparable attempts? Appears like our AI believes they'll be using Jalen Hurts 600-pound squat and strong legs and lower body (Does our AI have a crush on Jalen Hurts?) time and again during this game.

Alright, I'm attempting to determine the likelihood that the Eagles will do more than 5 "tush-pushes" during the Super Bowl. First, I need to understand exactly what a "tush-push" is. From the articles, it appears like it's a method where the quarterback, in this case Jalen Hurts, uses his legs and lower body strength to push off defenders. It's compared to pressing a heavy box, so it's a physical maneuver that needs strength and technique.

Article 3 dives into the physics of the "tush-push." It explains how Hurts utilizes his leg strength, having actually done a 600-pound squat, to carry out the move. The short article mentions that the Eagles have a 90% success rate with this technique, which is quite high. ... I likewise require to think about the protective methods of the Chiefs. If the Chiefs understand the Eagles' "tush-push" method, they may change their defense appropriately, which could either increase or reduce the variety of times the Eagles utilize it.

Considering that more than 5 looks like a considerable number however possible offered their self-confidence, annunciogratis.net I would estimate a possibility around 60-70% possibility. This accounts for their preparation, self-confidence in the method, and the probability that they'll use it several times, specifically if it's effective early on.

Will Kendrick Lamar diss Donald Trump during the halftime show performance?

AI Final Prediction: 65% possibility

While our AI may not be like us when it pertains to consciousness, a soul, or any physical manifestation, it certainly has viewpoints on Kendrick Lamar. It was quite uncertain, waffling back and forth, but in the end it believes Kendrick isn't going to back down from a fight.

From the posts, I see that Kendrick Lamar has a history of slamming Trump. He's done this in his songs, like "The Heart Part 4," and even made a statement during a previous halftime show when Trump was present in 2018. That seems substantial since it reveals he's done it in the past, so maybe he'll do it again. But wait, taking a look at more recent short articles, it points out that Lamar is moving far from political statements and focusing more on personal expression. That could imply he's less likely to address Trump this time.

However, he's also associated with a fight with Drake, which may offer him reasons to make some public statements, even if they're not political. Another point is the legal problems surrounding his track "Not Like Us." There's a character assassination fit from Drake, so maybe he's cautious about including any questionable songs in the efficiency. But considering that he won the Grammys for that track, he may still want to perform it, even if it's uncertain.

Considering Trump is attending this Super Bowl, which is a high-profile event, Lamar may feel forced to make a statement. However, the NFL tends to avoid political declarations throughout the halftime show, so there's a threat that such material may be restricted or softened.

On the other hand, Lamar has a track record of making vibrant moves on big phases. He's the very first solo rap act to heading the halftime program, which might provide him more innovative freedom. Plus, his previous behavior suggests he's not shy about expressing his viewpoints, even in public performances.

But I also keep in mind reading that Lamar expressed tiredness about slamming Trump, comparing it to beating a dead horse. That could indicate he's less encouraged to raise Trump this time around, specifically if he's focusing on his fight with Drake. In summary, weighing all factors-past behavior, existing shifts in focus, legal concerns, and the event's context-the possibility seems to be reasonably high, possibly around 65%.

Will Andy Reid consume a cheeseburger on screen after the incredibly bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 25% opportunity

Lets be honest, Andy Reid likes cheeseburgers. And who does not? Will the truth that our AI has never tasted the juicy deliciousness of a fresh burger taint its forecast? Looks like theres rather of a possibility that if the chiefs taste victory, Andy will taste Angus Beef.

From the posts, I see that Terry Bradshaw made a joke about Andy Reid eating a cheeseburger during a Super Bowl event. Bradshaw later on said sorry for the joke, saying he didn't mean to trigger offense which he actually discovered it amusing himself. Reid appeared to take it in stride, which may show he's the type to laugh it off instead of getting upset.

Looking at the short articles, it mentions that Andy Reid is a food enthusiast and enjoys cheeseburgers. There's a short article particularly about his love for food, which recommends that he's a person who delights in eating, particularly with his group. So, if there were strategies to celebrate after the Super Bowl, it's possible he would take part in a cheeseburger, specifically if the scenario is on screen for a celebration.

Will the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl be tails?

AI Final Prediction: 50% opportunity

"Tails never ever fails?" You can't fool the makers !! Betters leading up to the superbowl have actually been forecasting the coin toss and 53% are forecasting heads due to it being heads 3 of the last 4 super bowls. Potentially rewarding? Maybe. Statistically incongruent? Certainly. Luckily our AI can't be fooled and thinks anything can happen when that coin goes in the air.

Okay, so I'm trying to figure out the likelihood that the opening coin toss in the Super Bowl will be tails. I understand that a coin toss is supposed to be 50/50, but there's some historic information that might influence this forecast.

First, I review the articles supplied. They all point out the historic data of Super Bowl coin tosses. It appears like tails has actually come up more frequently than heads historically. Specifically, in 58 Super Bowls, tails has been the outcome 30 times, which is about 52%, while heads has actually been 28 times, which has to do with 48%. So, based simply on history, tails has a slight edge, but it's not a substantial difference.

However, I bear in mind that the outcome of a coin toss is generally thought about random. The minor historical edge for tails might be due to opportunity. But when making forecasts, in some cases people weigh historical data even if it's not statistically considerable. So, I ought to consider whether this historical predisposition needs to affect the likelihood.

After considering it, I choose that while the historical information shows a small choice for tails, it's not statistically significant adequate to move the probability away from 0.5. So, I'll go with 0.5 as the possibility, acknowledging that the slight historic edge exists but does not override the that each toss is an independent 50/50 event.

Will the referees cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?

AI Final Prediction: 1% chance

We get it, you think the refs like Patrick Mahomes and are gon na assist him win. If I wasn't born and raised in Kansas City (I guarantee we didn't inject pro-Kansas City training data) I would probably believe the same. BUT, its official now since our AI says the chances are only 1% (hmmmm ... 1% is still sort of high when it pertains to scams on a nationwide scale). Appears like the Chiefs will need to win fair and square!

AI Reasoning:

Okay, so I'm trying to find out the possibility that the referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Hmm, that's a pretty severe accusation. Let me break this down. First, I'm seeing a great deal of articles that speak about conspiracy theories recommending referees are prejudiced towards the Chiefs. People are indicating some questionable hire current games, particularly the AFC National championship. That does seem to stimulate some uncertainty. I can see why fans might get annoyed when their team loses due to what they view as bad officiating.

But then I check out that the NFL Referees Association and the Commissioner, Roger Goodell, have both dismissed these claims as "preposterous" and "outrageous." They say there's no proof of organized predisposition. That's a strong statement from the people in charge. If they're denying it, it may mean there's no real basis or they would have resolved it in a different way if there was some reality to it.

Taking a look at the posts, several sources like [1], [5], [6], [7], [8], and [9] all report that the officials are against these claims, gratisafhalen.be and some even called them insulting. They also mentioned that statistical analysis doesn't show any pattern of favoritism towards the Chiefs. For circumstances, Mike Pereira from FOX said information shows the Chiefs have been punished more considering that 2022. That's intriguing due to the fact that if they were getting unique treatment, you might anticipate fewer charges, right?

...

So, putting it all together, the probability that referees will cheat to assist the Chiefs win the Super Bowl is most likely very low. Maybe not zero because you can't rule out every possibility, however extremely not likely.

Summary

There you have it everyone, is it even worth seeing the video game still? I guess I'll need to wait and see how the game turns out before we release this upon the stock market. Fingers crossed for a good game! And hi, if it turns out our AI was wrong about everything, at least it can gain from this.